South Sudan declares Kenya-led Tumaini Peace Initiative 'dead'

South Sudan has formally pronounced the Nairobi-led Tumaini Peace Initiative defunct, months after the process was quietly suspended amid growing tensions and mistrust between the government and newly included opposition actors.

Speaking on behalf of Juba's delegation, Presidential Advisor Kuol Manyang Juuk said the initiative had deviated from its original mandate and attempted to override the existing Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), signed in 2018.

"The R-ARCSS has not been dissolved, so it cannot be replaced by the Tumaini," Juuk told reporters. "All that they have quoted is 80% of the chapters in the R-ARCSS incorporated into the Tumaini. It's Tumaini 10 per cent, which was not included in the R-ARCSS because you add the few to the majority, not the majority to the few."

The Tumaini Initiative, backed by Kenya at the request of President Salva Kiir in December 2023, was meant to revive stalled peace negotiations by bringing new opposition groups, including the United People's Alliance, into the fold. But Juba now accuses the process of legitimising rebellion and undermining an already functional peace framework.

"They wanted to do away with the R-ARCSS, and then Tumaini takes over, and they come as the authority of the land," said Juuk. "But these are people who were members of the government, and whatever they said was not done by the government - they were a party to it."

Juuk went further, casting doubt on the financial integrity of opposition leaders who have lived abroad for years. "They are renting or buying villas. Where did they get that money from, if not from South Sudan during their tenure in government?"

The Tumaini framework had proposed the establishment of a "Leadership Council" as the apex organ of government - an idea Juuk rejected outright.

"That's a coup in another name," he said, warning that accepting such a structure would open the floodgates to political blackmail. "If you give these people the chance to climb to the highest office, then you are telling me also to rebel. I get my five people, and we come to Kenya, and we call the government for peace talks."

According to Juuk, Juba has already expressed concern to Nairobi over reports that the United People's Alliance was allowed to form a military wing while based in Kenya—something he argues contradicts East African Community (EAC) norms.

"You can't just say anybody jumping out to say, 'I have a case with the government, I must be given a condition.' So it's dead. Tumaini is dead," he declared.

The Kenyan-led talks were adjourned for the third time on February 7, 2025, without agreement.

While initially seen as a bold attempt by President William Ruto to restore momentum to South Sudan's peace process—after frustrations with the Italy-based Sant'Egidio talks—the Tumaini Initiative now appears to have collapsed under the weight of competing political narratives and suspicions.

Nairobi has yet to issue a formal response.